Can you can guess the month another person bought their Golf?

[Dubya]

Imagine someone unknown to you drove up in their Mark V Golf and said "I'll offer you odds of 10:1 that you cannot guess the month in which I took delivery of my Golf."

Even though your chances of picking the right month are only 1/12 (the year is not required), you guess May.

The person then says, let me tell you 10 of the months in which I did not take delivery of my car.

He then tells you every month of the year except August and May.

You now know the car was delivered in either August or May.

He then asks, "Would you like to stick with your original choice of May or switch to August?"

A group of onlookers has gathered.

People are yelling advice.

One, named Buller_Rock_v, is particularly vocal and says: "Stick with your initial choice! There are only two possible months now and only two choices; you have a 50/50 chance of winning now. You'll kick yourself if you switch and are wrong!"

Another person, Hawkie, says, "There was a 11/12 chance of you picking the wrong month in the first place. This has not changed now that you know 10 of the months that are wrong. There is an 11/12 chance that if you switch you will win, even though to some it looks like a choice between just two dates and a 50/50 chance!"

You hesitate.

There are only two options now. With only two months to choose from, it looks like 50/50.

But is it?

What would you do?

[whiteVR6]

check the rego label, cars should be delivered within 7 days of being registered

[Whubbsie]

havent we already been through this?

[dylan8]

Not this again, does my head in after a full on day at work...
Couldnt it be posted on the other threads? or does everyone else enjoy it that much...

[team_v]

This was done to death before.
with the 3 doors to win a GTI Monty Hall Dilema.

In the end, you cannot consider the original chance of winning as the variables have changed and you can make an educated decision.
Sure, you could choose one of the months that they have already discounted but why would you.

[PassatB6]

Imagine someone unknown to you drove up in their Mark V Golf and said "I'll offer you odds of 10:1 that you cannot guess the month in which I took delivery of my Golf."

Even though your chances of picking the right month are only 1/12 (the year is not required), you guess May.

The person then says, let me tell you 10 of the months in which I did not take delivery of my car.

He then tells you every month of the year except August and May.

You now know the car was delivered in either August or May.

He then asks, "Would you like to stick with your original choice of May or switch to August?"

A group of onlookers has gathered.

People are yelling advice.

One, named Buller_Rock_v, is particularly vocal and says: "Stick with your initial choice! There are only two possible months now and only two choices; you have a 50/50 chance of winning now. You'll kick yourself if you switch and are wrong!"

Another person, Hawkie, says, "There was a 11/12 chance of you picking the wrong month in the first place. This has not changed now that you know 10 of the months that are wrong. There is a 11/12 chance that if you switch you will win, even though to some it looks like a choice between just two dates and a 50/50 change!"

You hesitate.

There are only two options now. With only two months to choose from, it looks like 50/50.

But is it?

What would you do?

The answer is you should switch. Yes, it is the Mont Hall dilemma but the issue is that our logic tells us its a 50:50 chance while maths tells us that this is not actually true. Its one of those cases where our understanding of the world is wrong but we find it hard to understand how it could be. Like an optical illusion.

In fact you have 11 times the chance of getting it right by switching.

[team_v]

In fact you have 11 times the chance of getting it right by switching.

You have a better chance of getting it right by switching if you still include the other months that have already been discounted as an option to choose.
However you already know they are wrong so your choice is down to 2 so the odds for a normal person are 50:50 but the odds for a person who doesn't care about winning and considers the other doors as a valid option are 11:12

[Dubya]

You have a better chance of getting it right by switching if you still include the other months that have already been discounted as an option to choose.
However you already know they are wrong so your choice is down to 2 so the odds for a normal person are 50:50 but the odds for a person who doesn't care about winning and considers the other doors as a valid option are 11:12

Glad to see you now see the merits of switching after proclaiming no benefit in switching in the Monty Hall game because you believed the odds were 50:50 no matter which of the remaining two closed doors you chose.

But now you say the odds would be 50:50 for a "normal person" and 11:12 for someone who "doesn't care about winning".

Somehow the characteristics of the person affect their odds?

Wouldn't the probability of guessing right be 1/12 if one stuck with the original choice and 11/12 if one switched?

Just like they are 1/3 (for the initial choice) and 2/3 (for the only remaining choice) in the MH game?

[maca]

Rego plates normally help. E.g. we're up to ###R** atm and say the car was delivered around last Semptember/October, it'd have ###L**. I mean, that's if it hasn't been reregistered.

[abreut]

Hehe "I hate it when people put words in my mouth"...

[Buller_Scott]

lol, i had a pretty long reply already posted, but i decided i'd better reel it in.

long story short- i had questions for the 2/3 camp that no one was able to answer. e.g. my ''dub fest, 20 raffle tickets, 1 gti prize, guy gets to switch 10 times, he's one of 10 remaining at the podium come time to draw, each person has only one ticket, someone tell me just how he has a 55% chance of winning?" scenario. that was one of about 3-4 big questions that i sought explanatory answers to, yet not one peep to any of them.

so yeah- it's been done, and i applaud your enthusiasm, dubya, because if i had my way i would LOVE to see this debate/ reasoning through, with thorough explanations etc, right through to the very end. i'd also have been more than willing to oblige, and try to mimic the scenario over the course of 1000 draws using playing cards, IF my questions in the initial thread, months ago, had been addressed by those in the 66% camp.

but i think that, in light of the wave of new VWWA members, and the potential for those members too, to get dragged into this, and what must have been a headache for the mods last time, i reckon this thread might get closed soon.

cheers, though. im looking forward to the next provocative discussion in general chat.... preferably involving math of some sort

cheers,

scotty

[anthony]

In Victoria number plates help.

For example most new car registrations this month started with XS? or XT?

Although some went back as far as XMG.

Next month XU? will begin.

[The_Hawk]

Those that understand will debate it to the death, those that do not will debate to the death.

How about I repost the wiki link for anyone who wants to read through it again: Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[The_Hawk]

It has been requested that this thread remain open for civil discussion. If it deviates from civil discussion it will be removed and infractions will be handed out to those who cannot play nice.

[Rocket36]

Pick one.....



There's a 50% chance you'll pick Cherry and a 50% chance you'll pick White. No more, no less. Basic maths really.