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Finally - A Monty Hall Problem Explanation that makes sense, even to me!

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  • #16
    Originally posted by bigfoot View Post
    perhaps we should discuss the plane on the conveyor belt then?

    What is "plane on conveyor belt", bigfoot?

    Is it like Birthday Paradox which says if you have 23 people in a room there is a 50% chance two will celebrate their birthdays on the same day of the year?

    Anyway, I am now convinced that there is no way that all reasonably intelligent people will understand the solution to a simple problem based on pure logic.
    If the answer to the Monty Hall problem was 50/50, the contestant, on average, would win the car 50% of the time simply by sticking with their original guess...but you can only win a one-in-three guessing game 33.33% of the time so it can't be 50/50, can it?

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Arnold View Post
      I am being uninundated with PMs from people who write things such as:

      Originally posted by Anon (to protect the innocent)
      2 doors, 50% chance for either door, it's that simple.
      Simply wrong.

      There are so many sources on the web that explain this so well it's amazing that people can't understand it.
      Former owner of MY12 GTD with DSG

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      • #18
        Originally posted by bigfoot View Post
        perhaps we should discuss the plane on the conveyor belt then?

        Ooh! I know that one. I like it.

        The physics behind that one gets quite interesting, depending on what the conveyor is really doing. As a nerd, I quite liked it.
        Former owner of MY12 GTD with DSG

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        • #19
          I looked at the Plane on a Conveyor "problem" online . . .

          Presuming the conveyor carries no air with it (and it would have a very low Cd, right?), I could not see how a plane could take off without any speed relative to ground and the air around it, no matter how fast its wheels were turning.
          If the answer to the Monty Hall problem was 50/50, the contestant, on average, would win the car 50% of the time simply by sticking with their original guess...but you can only win a one-in-three guessing game 33.33% of the time so it can't be 50/50, can it?

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          • #20
            lol you bored people.... go build some cars.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by WABIT View Post
              lol you bored people.... go build some cars.
              X2.

              MK2 - *Insert list of dealer purchased extra's/standard features here*
              80 series - The MK2's BIG, Sooty, polar opposite...
              HAHAHA

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Arnold View Post
                I could not see how a plane could take off without any speed relative to ground and the air around it, no matter how fast its wheels were turning.
                Why would wheel speed be relevant to air speed? Planes use engine thrust (prop / jets) to generate their speed - they don't drive through the wheels.
                Former owner of MY12 GTD with DSG

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by ParaBul View Post
                  Why would wheel speed be relevant to air speed? Planes use engine thrust (prop / jets) to generate their speed - they don't drive through the wheels.
                  Apart from thr enginee, the wheels seem to be the only thing on the plane that are doing as you'd expect for take off but no matter how fast they turn (or how hard the engines push) I cannot see how the plane would take off.
                  If the answer to the Monty Hall problem was 50/50, the contestant, on average, would win the car 50% of the time simply by sticking with their original guess...but you can only win a one-in-three guessing game 33.33% of the time so it can't be 50/50, can it?

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by ParaBul View Post
                    Simply wrong.

                    There are so many sources on the web that explain this so well it's amazing that people can't understand it.
                    Indeed, I exchanged a dozen or more PMs with someone in order to explain the MH Problem using the analogous three-card game played 100 times by laying out 100 triplets of cards (1 x Ace and 2 x Jokers) face down on a table and asking an imaginary contestant to place a single marker on one of the cards in each of the 100 triplets.

                    He agreed that a person would on average place a marker on 33 Aces if they placed a marker on one card in each set of triplets.

                    He seemed to agree that if you revealed one of the Jokers, they would still have their marker on about 33 Aces, (suggesting that you would win 33% of the time if you did not switch).

                    He seemed to follow me when I said they would then have their marker on 67 Aces if they moved all of their markers from the card on which it was originally placed to the only other face down card (confirming the doubling of wins from switching).

                    I think he understood when I said, so 33 wins if you leave the marker where it is, and 67 wins if you switch its position, which is consistent with the 33/67 theory.

                    But then he said the contestant had a 50/50 chance of winning because now there are just two cards from which to choose and you cannot use the probabilities of 1 in 3 after one of the three cards has been removed.

                    I asked how they could explain the player not having their marker on 50 Aces if it was 50/50, pointing out that it was only 50/50 if the choice between the two remaining cards was made randomly (e.g. by a coin toss or after the two remaining cards had been shuffled).

                    All to no avail.

                    Anyway, I guess you cannot explain the Monty Hall Problem to everyone.
                    If the answer to the Monty Hall problem was 50/50, the contestant, on average, would win the car 50% of the time simply by sticking with their original guess...but you can only win a one-in-three guessing game 33.33% of the time so it can't be 50/50, can it?

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Arnold View Post
                      Anyway, I guess you cannot explain the Monty Hall Problem to everyone.
                      No. it's more that we just don't care.
                      Audi S3. Sold
                      Golf R. Sold
                      Citroen DS3 Dsport. Sold
                      2016 Skoda Octavia RS Wagon.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Ideo View Post
                        No. it's more that we just don't care.
                        Maybe, but this guy genuinely does not understand the MH Problem, which is a shame, I think.

                        But who's "we" anyway? The people who don't understand the MH Problem, or are you seeking to speak on behalf of everyone on this forum?
                        If the answer to the Monty Hall problem was 50/50, the contestant, on average, would win the car 50% of the time simply by sticking with their original guess...but you can only win a one-in-three guessing game 33.33% of the time so it can't be 50/50, can it?

                        Comment

                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Arnold View Post
                          But who's "we" anyway? The people who don't understand the MH Problem, or are you seeking to speak on behalf of everyone on this forum?
                          Everyone on the forum.
                          My Tiguan TSI APR Stg2 + RPF1's

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by team_v View Post
                            Everyone on the forum.
                            Thanks "Fifty", but I am sure Ideo can speak for himself and everyone = 100% and that patently is not the case.
                            If the answer to the Monty Hall problem was 50/50, the contestant, on average, would win the car 50% of the time simply by sticking with their original guess...but you can only win a one-in-three guessing game 33.33% of the time so it can't be 50/50, can it?

                            Comment

                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Arnold View Post
                              Thanks "Fifty", but I am sure Ideo can speak for himself and everyone = 100% and that patently is not the case.
                              Everyone +/- 0.5%

                              I think this thread can be closed as it is not providing any benefit to forum members who joined to learn more about the brand and their cars.
                              My Tiguan TSI APR Stg2 + RPF1's

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Arnold View Post
                                Maybe, but this guy genuinely does not understand the MH Problem, which is a shame, I think.

                                But who's "we" anyway? The people who don't understand the MH Problem, or are you seeking to speak on behalf of everyone on this forum?
                                The majority.
                                Audi S3. Sold
                                Golf R. Sold
                                Citroen DS3 Dsport. Sold
                                2016 Skoda Octavia RS Wagon.

                                Comment

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