Monty Hall Dilemma - Winning a GTI on a Game Show

[cme2c]

I seem to recall the relevant advertising slogan was "Here comes de Judge ! "

I was always impressed with how such large, heavy lumbering beasts could be made to go so fast, just by bunging in an equally huge engine (but don't ask any awkward questions about braking ability, let alone cornering).

For those young'uns who are wondering what the hell this is about, google "Pontiac GTO" (from the days when nearly all americans thought that it was their god-given right to burn as much cheap petrol as they liked).

Here 'tis It's not only petrol they burnt.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3fN2ptNNKk

There was even a song about GTOs, by Ronnie and the Daytonas.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_FSicQWimU

So, Greg, you'd know what "3 deuces and a 4 speed" meant...

Meanwhile, my son is 26 today.

[gregozedobe]

I saw a goat on the weekend that would eat a GTI. It had a supercharger sticking out of the bonnet, "Pontiac" on the back and a number plate "DINOSR".

I seem to recall the relevant advertising slogan was "Here comes de Judge ! "

I was always impressed with how such large, heavy lumbering beasts could be made to go so fast, just by bunging in an equally huge engine (but don't ask any awkward questions about braking ability, let alone cornering).

For those young'uns who are wondering what the hell this is about, google "Pontiac GTO" (from the days when nearly all americans thought that it was their god-given right to burn as much cheap petrol as they liked).

[silver32]

Goat has AWD - it's a bargain guys.

[schoona]

NO! DSG will detract from the raw goat herding experience.

Depends if it was a South African mounting goat or a timid beast from the Black forest. Wolf in sheeps clothing them German ones...

[cme2c]

Knowing my luck, the goat will have eaten the GTI by the time I make up my mind which door to open.

I saw a goat on the weekend that would eat a GTI. It had a supercharger sticking out of the bonnet, "Pontiac" on the back and a number plate "DINOSR".

[Frankenstrat]

Knowing my luck, the goat will have eaten the GTI by the time I make up my mind which door to open.

[Timbo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

This is the best explanation. Annoying voice though.

Agree. It's important to recognise the game has two decision cycles, with more information presented for the second decision cycle. This information is what should prompt you to swap

[team_v]

NO! DSG will detract from the raw goat herding experience.

Good.
DSG only means i wouldn't have bothered with the Goat option.

Now i am free to choose whatever door i like.

[Dubya]

[1] Will the goat hesitate?

[2] Will Maverick get p#ssed off with the thread?

1. The Damascus (Shami) Goat hesitates (I herd quite often).

2. Only if it gets his goat.

[MurphyTheElf]

Is the goat DSG only?

NO! DSG will detract from the raw goat herding experience.

[pixl]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

This is the best explanation. Annoying voice though.

[cme2c]

Is the goat an option for the GTI?
Can i get the GTI in goat leather trim?

Is it possible to chip the goat?
Is the goat DSG only?

Will the goat hesitate?

Will Maverick get p#ssed off with the thread?

[team_v]

There are so many variables;

Is the GTI 3 door or 5 door
Manual or DSG
Does it have Dynaudio?
Are the goats the same age?
Are the goats male or female?

Is the goat an option for the GTI?
Can i get the GTI in goat leather trim?

Is it possible to chip the goat?
Is the goat DSG only?

[FJ Steve]

But....but....what if there wasn't a GTI behind the "3rd" door?

In fact...what if they had 3 goats behind the 3 doors.....and only wheeled the GTI up to show you what you missed when you made 2 dud choices....

What's the odds with that?

[ccpl]

As stated plenty of times already in this topic, its complete BS.

If you take into account that your original choices include a 1/3 chance of winning, and then the host improves the odds by taking away one of the choices, then yes, given the original odds, you now have a 2/3 chance of winning WITH EITHER DOOR.

But as stated previously, the variables have changed, and so must the odds - so you now have a 1/2 chance of winning.

People try to use mathematics to solve the equation, and just end up complicating the problem - when all they really need is simple arithmetic:

1 + 1 + 1 = 3
3 - 1 = 2

To demonstrate the flawed mechanic, the whole idea of 'switching your door' giving you a 2/3 chance to win, relies on the first mechanic - that you did not choose the prize in the first place (which is an original 1/3 chance). If you happened to win that 1/3 chance, then 'switching your door' gives you a 0/3 (original) and 0/2 (progressive) chance to win.

Should you happen to choose a goat first (2/3 chance), the 'switch mechanic' gives you a 2/3 (original) and 1/2 (progressive) chance to win

HOWEVER

If you take into account that the modified fraction chance values can not exist until the original fraction chance value has been solved (ie: door chosen) - then it becomes obvious that in order to correctly calculate the odds, the variables must be processed first.

Which again is simple maths:

1 + 1 + 1 = 3
3 - 1 = 2